AAP — Advance Auto Parts Inc

Events represent the number of times the market's intraday low crossed the TSF forecast entry price during the selected period. Forecasts are published for every trading day, but only generate a position when the market actually reaches the entry price.

Wins are capped at the profit target — when a position's intraday high reaches the target, it exits. A loss occurs when a position does not reach its profit target within the maximum hold duration and is closed at the closing price on the final day. Lower profit targets produce faster exits with lower per-trade risk.

Avg Duration is typically well below the maximum hold duration, because most positions reach their profit target long before the hold window expires.

Win Rate is a function of both signal quality and hold duration. A position counted as a loss at 7 days may resolve profitably at 30 or 90 days. Adjust the maximum hold duration to demonstrate this directly.

TSF positions are asymmetric by design: a high frequency of small, bounded wins offsets a low frequency of larger forced-exit losses. This is why a high win rate does not guarantee positive EV — it depends on whether cumulative wins outpace the fewer but larger losses. Extending the hold duration reduces forced exits, which is why win rate, EV, and total return all improve as the hold window increases.